Reading the Cycles
The cryptocurrency and Blockchain space is a beauty to behold as it takes its passengers on a wild and unpredictable rollercoaster ride. But is it unpredictable? It seems everybody has an opinion, and that ranges from skeptics and naysayers one comes across in odd places like checkout lines and airports, to so-called domain experts that run massive funds, and even banks. Nobody is proving to be any sort of Nostradamus.
As builders of one of the few Blockchain based solutions in telecommunications, Ammbr has taken perhaps a more unusual view.
What is very interesting from recent events, is the way everyday people are showing interest in the regulatory aspects of Blockchain. I am reminded of a similar battle. The Intellectual Property (IP) battle that came about over P2P file sharing.
Napster, created by Shawn Fanning, was arguably the first successful attempt at music distribution that bucked the establishment. This was a technology that was aimed at bypassing the stranglehold on music by the large record labels. In July 2001 a Californian judge shut Napster down by ruling they were infringing on copyright, and this spawned long and protracted litigation. At about the same time, July 2, 2001, Bram Cohen created Bittorrent, which runs to this day through infamous sites like the Pirate Bay. Torrenting impacts many IP holders, not only in music, but in movies, printed work, and applications. Law enforcement efforts to shut down Torrenting networks has had mixed success, and is a work in progress.
As a result of P2P file sharing technologies like Napster and Bittorrent, regular people who would otherwise be entirely disinterested, started paying attention to IP regulations.
Fast forward to 2009 and the release of Bitcoin, the first and still largest of the P2P value sharing networks. Like P2P file sharing this was born from, and is still, a grass roots movement with a strong technology dimension, voicing dissatisfaction with the stranglehold on value (money) by banks and central banks. Without the 2008 financial crisis and movements like Occupy, perhaps interest would have been much more muted. As it is, the growth in awareness and support has been phenomenal. The key difference between Blockchain and P2P file sharing is the economic dimension. People can now monetize whatever they share, and can transact using this technology.
Today we are seeing regulatory intervention and law enforcement actions in Blockchain, much as we saw with P2P file sharing. Similarly, people who would otherwise not even glance at financial or banking regulations, are avidly following debates on what makes a token a security or a commodity, and whether using a cryptocurrency is legal in their jurisdiction.
Whatever the outcomes, it is clear that Blockchain works, and the market will eventually determine what use cases will survive and thrive. For example, our bet at Ammbr is that a strong use case will be in last-mile telecommunications. My prediction (yes, me too) is that we will not see prominent Napster or a Bittorrent equivalents rise to dominance because people will bow to the law eventually, whatever its determination. We will see the likes of a Netflix and an iTunes emerging from the ashes of the anarchy to claim massive rewards in full compliance with the laws of the land (whatever the jurisdiction).